Here's to a Long and Happy Life
My wish for you, my grandchildren and great grandchildren, is for peace and
prosperity throughout your lives and the lives of your own grandchildren.
As you all know, to live an optimal life—doing good for others while living well—takes significant
intelligence and effort. You'd be wise to make it your life's work
for all you love and revere.
And, in fact, you have no viable options. This is the only planet you and your progeny will ever inhabit. Treat it accordingly.
My intention here is to do a deep scan of what's going on—a look at some of the many ways in which your world is changing and ways in which it needs to—starting with what's
happening close to home, and pointing out ways you and I can work to shape our environs for the better.
There's a lot here, but that's because you are all living in a complex world.
So let me start with where to plant your flag...
Preserving Our Democracy
In simplest terms, this means we all must ensure that
your voice and
your vote count
just as much as
anyone and
everyone else's. Read my warning to you:
This Is War.
Elsewhere in this site I have laid out
My Personal Politics,
along with a guide to
Pacific Northwest Politics,
and a list of
Documents which are the foundation of our democracy.
We all live in challenging times. If we are to continue to live in
peace and prosperity we must be hyper-vigilent and fully engaged to protect our democracy.
I'm member #90113226 of the
American Civil Liberties Union.
Other organizations engaged in the effort to protect voter rights include:
Change begins with awareness. These are some ugly facts
about our democracy today:
- Voter ID laws—along with
cutbacks in early voting and polling hours—have been designed by
Republican legislators to inconvenience lower income workers and people of color
pr prevent them from voting.
-
Gerrymandering—by which boundaries of electoral districts are
drawn in a way that gives one party an unfair advantage over its rivals. John Oliver did an excellent
exposé of the practice and the importance of the 2020 Census because of the Republicans' project
REDMAP.
-
American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC)—
a shadowy organization using corporate contributions to sell prepackaged conservative bills -- such as Florida's
Stand Your Ground statute -- to legislatures across the country.
- The Republican Party—
beginning with Nixon's Southern Strategy in the 1960s, the
GOP has supported racism,
misogyny and homophobia. But their long-term strategy has been to turn our democracy into an
oligarchy. And as of this writing, their
"tax bill" is their latest accomplishment toward that end.
- The National Rifle Association—has perverted the
Second Amendment from its
original intent for its own
massive gain,
and has done nothing to prevent the extraordinary number of deaths by gunfire in our country.
- Putin and
Russia—a hostile foreign power—conducted a
cyberespionage and information-warfare campaign devised to disrupt the 2016 presidential election,
the first such attempt by a foreign power in American history. To this date the Trump Administration has done nothing to prevent the Russians from corrupting the 2018 election and beyond.
- Hate groups—the SPLC (to which I donate regularly) has identified over 900 hate groups currently active
in the United States: anti-immigrant/-LGBT/-Muslim, Holocaust denial, neo-Confederate, neo-Nazi, white nationalist, black separatist, racist skinhead, etc.
Preventing Gun Violence
Our country has a unique problem with guns—lots and lots of guns.
Massacres
in reall life and bloodlust in movies, television and games have been at the root of our culture for decades.
I've spent quite a bit of time exploring what might be done to mitigate the problem, beginning with
current legislation.
Personally, I've been involved with these organizations:
Elsewhere in this site I offer my personal account,
Why I Don't Own a Gun,
and my discourse on
Guns and Violence.
Making a Positive Impact on Your Environment
- Speak Up! Act Up! Take Charge!
Talk to your friends and family, and make sure your
representatives are making decisions in the common interest. By voicing your concerns—via social media or, better yet, directly to your
elected officials—you send a message that you care about the warming planet.
Encourage Congress to enact new laws that limit carbon emissions and require polluters to pay for the emissions they produce. The main reason elected officials do anything difficult is because
their constituents make them. They fear the wrath of voters. Your active involvement can help protect public lands, stop offshore drilling, and more.
- Reduce water waste and protect water sources.
Saving water reduces carbon pollution, too. That's because it takes a lot of energy to pump, heat, and treat your water.
So take shorter showers, turn off the tap while brushing your teeth, and switch to WaterSense-labeled fixtures and appliances. The EPA estimates that if just one out of every 100 American homes
were retrofitted with water-efficient fixtures, about 100 million kilowatt-hours of electricity per year would be saved—avoiding 80,000 tons of global warming pollution.
- ☐ Never pour anything – especially waste oil or leftover lawn chemicals – into a storm drain. It will end up in the nearest stream.
- ☐ Water your lawn in the early morning.
- ☐ Don’t water more than once a week, and then only if it hasn't rained. Established lawns need only one inch of water a week.
- ☐ Use less fertilizer on your lawn. When it rains, excess fertilizer runs off into storm sewers and pollutes streams.
- ☐ Mulch around your landscaping. A three-inch layer of mulch holds moisture and prevents evaporation, reducing the need to water.
- ☐ Don’t do the dishes until you have a full load. Your dishwasher uses 12 gallons of water whether it’s full or half-empty.
- ☐ Wash a full load of laundry. Your washing machine uses 40 gallons of water.
- ☐ Don’t let the water run while you shave or brush your teeth. Every minute the faucet runs, 2.5 gallons of water go down the drain.
- ☐ Take a shorter shower. And switch to a low-flow shower head.
- ☐ Repair leaky faucets and toilets. You can tell if the toilet leaks by putting food coloring in the tank.
- ☐ Recycle. If your community does not offer a recycling program, ask local officials to start one.
- ☐ Save paints, pesticides, lawn chemicals, car batteries, waste oil and similar materials for your local household hazardous waste collection day.
- ☐ Turn in your mercury thermometer and replace it with a digital one. Mercury is a persistent pollutant that moves up the food chain and can cause serious health problems. Never vacuum spilled mercury. If you have mercury in your home, call Ohio EPA (614-644-3469) to find out how to get rid of it safely.
- ☐ Paper or plastic? Better yet, take a canvas bag to the grocery and re-use it each time you shop.
- ☐ Use rechargeable batteries. Many batteries contain metals that are better kept out of landfills.
Take old batteries to a battery store for recycling.
-
☐ Give it away, don’t throw it away.
- Live in an energy-efficient home
- ☐ Power your home with renewable energy. Coose a utility company that generates at least half its power from wind or solar and has been certified by
Green-e Energy. Take a look at your electric bill; many utilities now list ways to support renewable sources on their monthly
statements and websites.
- ☐ Weatherize! Heating and air-conditioning account for almost half of home energy use. Seal drafts and ensure all outside walls are adequately insulated.
Claim federal tax credits for energy-efficiency home improvements.
- ☐ Actually eat the food you buy—and make less of it meat. Approximately 10 percent of U.S. energy use goes into growing, processing, packaging, and
shipping food—about 40 percent of which just winds up in landfill. Since livestock products are among the most resource-intensive to produce, eating meat-free meals can make a big difference.
- ☐ Invest in energy-efficient appliances.
When shopping for refrigerators, washing machines, and other appliances, look for the Energy Star label and choose the most efficient.
- ☐ Buy better light bulbs. LED lightbulbs use up to 80 percent less energy than conventional incandescents. They’re also cheaper in the long run: A 10-watt LED that
replaces your traditional 60-watt bulb will save you $125 over the lightbulb’s life.
- ☐ Pull the plug(s). Taken together, the outlets in your home are likely powering about 65 different devices – an average load for a home in the U.S.
Audio and video devices, cordless vacuums and power tools, and other electronics use energy even when they're not charging.
Don't leave fully charged devices plugged into your home's outlets, unplug rarely used devices or plug them into power strips and timers, and adjust your computers and
monitors to automatically power down to the lowest power mode when not in use.
- Travel fuel-efficiently.
Gas-smart cars, such as hybrids and fully electric vehicles, save fuel and money. Once all cars and light trucks meet 2025’s clean car
standards, averaging 54.5 miles per gallon, as opposed to 28.3 miles per gallon in 2011.
Before you buy a new set of wheels, compare fuel-economy performance.
Here are some things you can do today...
- ☐ Carpool
- ☐ Combine errands into one trip
- ☐ Stop idling. Contrary to popular belief, restarting your car does not burn more fuel than leaving it idling.
In fact, idling for just 10 seconds wastes more gas than restarting the engine.
- ☐ Maintain your ride. If all Americans kept their tires properly inflated, we could save 1.2 billion gallons of gas each year. A simple tune-up can boost miles per
gallon anywhere from 4 percent to 40 percent, and a new air filter can get you a 10 percent boost.
- ☐ Walk or Bike (in Portland check out BikeTownPDX;
here's some expert advice and a
great source of maps of Portland bikeways and walkways)
- ☐ Take public transportation (in Portland, use TriMet, they'll transport you and your bike)
- ☐ Rethink planes, trains, and automobiles. Choosing to live in walkable smart-growth cities and towns with quality public transportation leads to less driving, less money spent on fuel,
and less pollution in the air. Less frequent flying can make a big difference, too. Air transport is a major source of climate pollution. If you can take a
train instead, do that.
- ☐ Telecommute, if possible.
- Offset your carbon profile.
You can offset the carbon you produce by purchasing
carbon offsets,
which represent clean power that you can add to the nation’s energy grid in place of power from fossil fuels. But not all
carbon offset companies are alike. Do your homework to find the best supplier.
The Bigger Picture
The Center for Strategic and International Studies has defined seven "revolutions" facing the world in your lifetime...
- Population
- Changes in global population over the next 3-7 decades will drive
key questions: What will be the impacts of a larger population?
What impact will rising (and falling) national populations have on
the world? How will aging societies impact national priorities and
the way we live? What changes might happen as the share of population
living in cities continues to grow?
-
GROWTH: World population is expected to grow from 7.5 billion in
2017 to 9.8 billion by 2050.
-
AGING: Average global life expectancy in 1950 was 46.9 years; by 2050 it could rise to 77.8 years.
- URBANIZATION: The number of megacities (10 million or more
people) is expected to grow from 28 today to 56 in 2035.
- Resources
- Major changes are expected in food consumption, water availability,
energy usage, and impacts of climate change over the next 1-3
generations. Questions include: What kind of food will the world have,
what foods will people want, and how much of it might there be in
20-40 years? How will a growing population adapt to a static water
supply? What impact will energy consumption—and mix—have on
other resources? How will communities prepare for and/or respond to
climate change?
-
FOOD: The International Diabetes Federation estimates that
there will be 642 million people with diabetes in 2040, more than people who are hungry by that year.
-
WATER: 33 countries are expected to experience “extremely
high” water stress in 2040, according to the World Resources Institute. In addition, China, India, and the United States will
experience “high stress.”
- ENERGY: Despite advances in developed-world adoption of renewable sources of energy, the U.S. Department of Energy
anticipates that global fossil fuel consumption will fall from 82% today to 78% of global energy production by 2040.
- CLIMATE: The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change estimates
that climate change exceeding 2 degrees Celsius will lead to significant impacts on human society. Halting climate change at
that level would require reducing fossil energy consumption to approximately 59% of total energy use by 2040.
USEFUL RESOURCES For more information on energy consumption,
see the
International Energy Outlook, an annual report
produced by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency. The
World Resources Institute has a series of interactive
features on water availability and demand.
- Technology
- Technological advances are likely to have an even greater impact
over the next 25 years than they have had over the past 25. Advances
in not just computing speeds, but types of computing systems;
computer-machine integration (robotics); and biotechnology will impact
what activities can be technology-driven or managed, and how
humanity interfaces with and leverages future technology.
-
COMPUTATION: Emerging computation trends may alter the
way we interact with computers and what we imagine them to be capable of.
-
ROBOTICS: Advances in wearable robotics in fields as diverse as
prosthetics and warehouse operations are changing both concepts of mobility and the way we think of human labor.
-
BIOTECHNOLOGY: Advances in technology have enabled scientists
to remove genetic pre-dispositions for harmful medical conditions
in lab-based embryos, and soon will enable the creation of
replacement organs, both potentially altering life expectancy.
- Information
- Emerging technological access to information—and technologically enabled access to people—may change human society over the cominggeneration.
-
DATA GROWTH: Over the next three years, global data generation
is expected to nearly triple, expanding opportunities for artificial intelligence to learn and be applied to a wider range of human activity.
-
ACCESS/PRIVACY: With nearly 9.2 billion web-enabled phones
expected in circulation by 2020, and nearly 500 million new users, the ways in which humans engage with and learn from the internet will grow significantly.
-
KNOWLEDGE: The ubiquity of information is
resulting in rapid data consumption, but little knowledge development. Managing data flow and identifying ways to consistently drive to more knowledge will be key challenges.
USEFUL RESOURCES Numerous sources provide varying data
and analysis in this area. Some starting points include Cisco’s report
on
The Zettabyte Era;
The Wall Street Journal’s (with others)
2016 Global IT Report; and
Pew Research Center’s program on
Internet and Technology, which examines future internet trends.
- Economics
- Economics has always been a key barometer of what countries or
regions are likely to be influential in the future. Stronger economies
are more likely to have greater influence. Current trends show that
long-standing economic relationships will shift in the coming decades.
Considering some of the drivers of why will better prepare one
for the changes—whether they occur gradually or suddenly.
-
GLOBALIZATION: Supply chains for nearly all products are global.
The iPhone, for example, is “made in China” and “designed by your friends in Cupertino.” Yet components for the iPhone come from dozens of countries including South Korea, Italy, Germany, Taiwan,
China, and the United States. What global trade means, and who benefits, is changing in ways that rhetoric often does not reflect.
-
NEW PLAYERS: are emerging across the economic landscape. This
includes rising economies
—not just China and India, but places like Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Nigeria. How they enter the global
system, and what changes (or continuity) they seek will have an impact on the coming 25 years. Further, the incorporation of greater
automation (or artificial intelligence) into work processes is likely to change the nature not only of international trade but of domestic labor markets.
-
TRADE: Exports as a share of global GDP have grown from 12% in
1960 to 27% in 2015—but this is down from a high of 31% as recently as 2013. Does this suggest that trade is now in terminal decline, or is
it simply what economists call a ‘market correction?’
-
DEBT: Since the 2008 financial crisis, debt has been a high-interest
issue for the global economy. China’s debt, for example, has quadrupled as a percentage of GDP since 2007; however, most debt
is held by China’s government or private sector, and is not seen as likely to result in systemic global economic risk.
USEFUL RESOURCES
The
World Bank publishes very large data sets on national and regional GDP, trade, and other measures of
economic productivity. For U.S. domestic information, numerous federal agencies catalogue some or all of this information; for
example, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics catalogs many economic indicators such as employment and sectoral shifts or projections
and the
Census Bureau measures international trade with the United States.
Raj Chetty, William A. Ackman Professor of Economics at Harvard, is an expert at the use of big data to study social problems.
- Security
- Longstanding norms and systems of security are being challenged in a multiplying number of ways. The existing structures have—so
far—been sufficient to manage emerging challenges, but the signs of security-system stress are growing.
-
PARADIGM? As a result of 21st-century technology—from communication
to ammunition—the means of disrupting security are becoming cheaper, easier to find, and easier to use. The structures designed to manage 20th-century problems are finding it difficult to
cope with 21st-century technology that is moving more quickly than
problem-management systems can adapt.
-
TRANSNATIONAL DISEASE THREATS: The time it takes disease to move from one area
to another has fallen by orders of magnitude since the 1918 “Spanish” flu outbreak. That episode killed between 50-100 million people in a single flu
season. Should such a virulent disease emerge in an era when it takes less than a day to travel to the farthest corners of the world, the potential consequences
would be even greater.
-
NATURE OF CONFLICT: How do countries (or companies) protect themselves from attacks when even clothes or hearing aids can be used to collect information or launch attacks? Our connected
world creates great opportunity for individual human advancement, but also risks whole new forms of vulnerability.
- Governance
- Governance explores how emerging trends may be manifestations of changes people seek in their relationship to governing structures.
-
IDENTITY: Americans are more worried and anxious
about the future than ever. Sure, every generation seems to think, for one reason or another, that the place is going to hell in a hand basket. This time, it appears to be a unique
convergence of a number of things.
- POPULISM: Whether from the left or right of the political spectrum, populists seek to leverage the identity of a group supposedly
dispossessed by an antagonist group—for example, immigrants and refugees or powerful international corporations. By seeking to deprive the antagonist group of power (economic or political) and
transferring that power to the dispossessed group, populists secure support, at least in the short term. There are, however, few instances of long-term successful populist movements.
- CIVIL SOCIETY: How countries welcome (or oppose) domestic or international civil society organizations (some of which have larger
budgets than the government ministries responsible for the same sector) who wish to operate within their borders will be a trend to watch in coming years.